Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk. Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian Edwards. Bad presentation of .. the United States as Calculated risks: how to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon.

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In each case, the medical profession acts like the first positive test provides you with certainty that you have the disease or not. The same is true for advocacy groups.?

Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. The author shows how health agencies and researchers express benefits of treatments by mentioning reduction in relative risk.

Jul 18, Marcelle rated it really liked it Shelves: It suggests that instead of using percentages when talking about probabilities we should be using natural frequencies which are easier for us to understand and remember and also whi One of those books that makes you wish you would have paid more attention calculaetd school math classes. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. Jun 07, Dick Hamilton rated it really liked it.

But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. This asymmetry shows that the goals of patients and doctors are not the same.?

What risk, you might ask, is there for an asymptommatic woman in having a mammogram? I cannot recommend this book enough. Customers who bought this item also bought. We are forced to deal with it regularly in our daily lives. Nov 12, Phil rated it it was ok. All innumerates buyers, sellers, students, professors, doctors, patients, lawyers and their clients, politicians, voters, writers and readers have something to learn from Gigerenzer’s quirky yet understandable book.

Let’s say you have a cancer that has a prevalence of 0. Feb 09, Dave rated it really liked it. Jan 20, Eun-kyeong rated it really liked gigerejzer. The Joy of x: I’d read about probabilistic and natural frequencies before, but until now, I’d never realised what those claims made about gigegenzer reliability of DNA fingerprinting matches really implied, and how ambiguous the numbers can be, especially when manipulated by prosecutors and ‘expert’ witnesses.


Providing a better representation is critical, when we think about how often we come across claims disguised in statistics. Amazon Advertising Find, attract, and engage customers. This awfulness is thrust upon the general public, and it has lead to wrongful imprisonment, unnecessary surgeries, and suicides.

The test could also indicate that no cancer is present when it is really there—the test could miss the cancer.? In a two-year period, this doctor convinced 90 “high-risk” women without cancer to sacrifice their breasts “in a heroic exchange for the certainty of saving their lives and protecting their loved ones from suffering and loss. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.

Calculated Risks: How to know when numbers deceive you: Gerd Gigerenzer

You will find the answer, and the explanation of the answer, enlightening. He goes on to say it’s nat It’s a mesmerizing statistics book. Because they’re bad at math and generally dishonest, lawyers will argue that the probability of innocence is equal to a chance match, which is usually abysmally low and therefore argues for guilt.

May 30, Irio rated it really liked it. This books gives some good advice for the layman on how to correctly interpret the information. Gigerenzer explains the importance of grrd of this and exposes the principle deficits of counseling. He goes on to say it’s natural for us to have struggle understanding the meaning behind probability; it’s an artificial invention.

Following the perhaps present standard of care, calculatfd, he doctor insisted she be monitored more closely, with more frequent riskd and another biopsy at a future time.

This book provides the mind tool to be more attentive. If people instead get the same question with the background information in the form of frequencies gisks of probabilities they do much better.?


Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You – Gerd Gigerenzer – Google Books

Jun 18, Hyokun Yun rated it liked it. Mammograms can show a noninvasive cancer called ductal carcinoma in situwhich is predominately nonfatal and needs no treatment, but is initially seen as a guess of cancer. The last few chapters are the weaker part of the book. The premise of this non-fiction is that people, in their quest for certainty particularly in medicineare not paying attention to what the data is truly saying- which is that there is not as much certainty in medicine as they believe.

Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. Paperbackpages.

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Interesting treatment of probability and the general inability of humans to calculate risk with accuracy. Lawyers will confuse juries, judges, reporters, and themselves over what a person having a match to crime scene DNA means about that person’s likelihood of guilt.

When you hear quotes from prosecutors such as ‘there is a one-in-a-million chance that someone else besides this suspect committed the crime,’ they’re getting their statements badly wrong. Better for the doctor to have asked for a test and found nothing than to have not asked for the test and miss a tumor, thus risking malpractice.

Read more Read less. As a “Medical Minimalist” I have often encountered resistance from doctors who have insisted I follow the proscribed schedule of “screening” tests. In short, here’s a maxim to protect us from this kind of dangerous, shoddy thinking and manipulation: In subsequent discussion about colorectal cancer and prostate cancer screening, he drives home the difference between conditional probabilities and natural frequencies.

The book lays out a number of stunning examples in which mispresentation of risks caused unfortunately sad ending: Showing of 34 reviews. ComiXology Thousands of Digital Comics.

Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don’t understand risk any better than anyone else.

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